Two events this week, one positive and one negative, illustrate the immense complexity of the Middle East. The first was the highly successful parliamentary election in Iraq, while the second was the resounding slap in the face Israel gave the U.S. during Vice President Joe Biden's official visit.

In Iraq, 62 percent of the electorate turned out to vote for 325 members of parliament. There were 6,200 candidates from 86 factions battling for seats, and the final results may not be known for some weeks. The most extraordinary aspect of the elections is that they took place at all. Millions of Iraqi voters went to the polls despite repeated shootings, bombings and warnings of dire consequences for those who took part. Nevertheless, despite numerous terrorist incidents in Baghdad and other big cities, the elections were successfully carried out. In this regard, the Iraqis put us to shame.

The most likely outcome is that there will be no parliamentary majority for any faction, which means a difficult, and perhaps dangerous, search to put together a governing coalition. That could take weeks, even months. The essential contest is between current Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki and former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi. Maliki, an ardent Shiite, leads the State of Law Coalition, which purports to cut across religious and tribal lines, and in fact does include some Sunni and Christian members — but is dominated by Maliki's Dawa Party, which is both Shiia and Islamist.

Allawi heads Al-Iraqiyya (or Iraqi National Movement) which has far more Sunni members than does Maliki's State of law Coalition. Moreover, though Allawi is a Shiite, he is a secularist, which makes him more acceptable in the current climate to disaffected Sunnis. So far, Maliki is leading in two provinces south of Baghdad, while Allawi is leading in two provinces north of the capital.

It is impossible to predict events in Iraq with any accuracy, as recent years have shown, but there are increasing signs of stability. What began as a war of choice for former President George W. Bush, the aftermath of which became a civil disaster for Iraq, and for which the U.S. was so lamentably unprepared, may yet work out well for President Barack Obama. Major withdrawals of combat troops will soon get under way. It's too soon to tell, of course, but the parliamentary elections bode well for the future.

Across the Iraqi and Jordanian desert, things don't look so good for Israeli and Palestinian peace talks. In an act either of bungled diplomacy or of deliberate affront, the Israeli government announced its decision to build new settlements in occupied East Jerusalem just as Vice President Joe Biden arrived in the country for official talks with Israeli and Palestinian leaders.

Obama has called for a complete halt to settlement building, a call Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has rejected — although last November he called for a 10-month-long partial halt. The Israeli government has stared down the U.S. government over the settlement issue and so far it has won. Clearly, Obama miscalculated in his dealings with a right-wing Israeli government. Still, for the Israelis to publicly declare their intention to build still more settlements in Jerusalem just as the American vice president arrives, is not only ham-handed, it is hostile. Biden was quick to respond, saying he "condemned" the planning decision, saying it "undermined the trust" necessary for the success of the peace process. The use of the word "condemn" is extremely strong diplomatic language and revealed U.S. anger with the Israeli decision.

Netanyahu apologized for the timing of the announcement though not for its substance. The settlement issue is the main reason why the Palestinian authority has boycotted direct talks with the Israelis for the past 17 months. "Proximity" talks are scheduled to get under way shortly, in which Israelis and Palestinians will not meet in the same room but in the same building in an effort to restart the peace process. The Israeli announcement not only embarrassed the American vice president, but also endangered the resumption of talks.

Let us be clear: Neither Prime Minister Netanyahu nor his Likud party coalition is interested in peace talks with the Palestinians or in an independent Palestinian state. They are totally opposed to the concept of land for peace, which is the basis for talks with the Palestinians. Though Netanyahu last year supported the concept of two states, he did so with so many restrictions on an independent Palestine that he knew it would be completely unacceptable to the Palestinians. His statement was a ploy to please his right-wing supporters and a sop to the U.S. The Palestinians know better. The Israeli settlement announcement this week is proof the Palestinians are correct.

Obama will get nowhere with Netanyahu unless he is prepared to play hardball. He has already learned that lesson over health care reform. Israel and Palestine should be next.

William M. Stewart, a former U.S. Foreign Service officer and Time magazine correspondent, lives in Santa Fe.